PERF Scientific Session
Fall 2020
The COVID Pandemic: Three Perspectives from world-class clinicians and researchers
Morning Session: Q&A
Anne Rimoin and Steven Goodman
For this special session we have top experts in epidemiology, evidence-based medicine, and emergency medicine presenting. This will be an analysis of what the data and the science tells us, what we know and what we don’t know, and an analysis of how this data has affected decision making and how endodontists should be thinking about the pandemic as clinicians.
Course description:
This session will be an in-depth question and answer session with 2 leading experts in epidemiology. You can ask them any questions you want! Covered will be:
- How disease models of COVID affect our decision making
- What we know about about COVID and what we don’t know
- How does an epidemiologist understand this disease?
- What is the real threat from the disease?
- How good is the evidence we have about the disease?
Attendees will learn:
- How the disease is spread
- What the real risks are
- What precautions you need to takes as an endodontist
- How rational the government response has been
- Whether dentists are super-spreaders of the disease
- What we know with confidence and where we are just guessing
- How to detect bias, hype, and misinformation
- Facts, opinion, and disinformation!
Afternoon Session: Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19: Challenges, Lessons, Utility, and Limitations
Roger Lewis
Objectives:
The lecture objectives are: (1) to understand basic epidemic compartment models and their application in epidemic prediction modeling; (2) to understand conceptually the Bayesian formulation of the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) model and how it was used for epidemic prediction modeling in Los Angeles County; (3) to understand the limitations of available case data in informing estimates of the incidence, severity, and spread of COVID-19; (4) to understand how the model can be used to estimate projected needs for hospital beds, intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and morgue services; (5) to understand the predictive performance of the Bayesian SEIR model in predicting the trajectory of the epidemic since its beginning; and (6) to understand how critical gaps in understanding true community infection burden and the extent and duration of naturally-acquired immunity limit the ability to create accurate epidemic models going forward.
Expect to Learn:
Attendees should expect to acquire an understanding of the mechanics, limitations, and value of epidemic prediction models, improving their ability to interpret model results that they see presented in scientific publications or the lay press.
Scientific Session Speakers
Steven Goodman
MD, MHS, PhD
Steven Goodman is Associate Dean of Clinical and Translational Research and Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health, and Medicine. He is co-founder and co-director of the Meta-research innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), a group dedicated to examining and improving the reproducibility and efficiency of biomedical research. He led the Stanford CTSA KL2 and TL1 training programs from 2012-2019.
Dr. Goodman’s own research concerns the proper measurement, conceptualization and synthesis of research evidence, with particular emphasis on Bayesian approaches to quantitation, and qualitative approaches arising from the philosophy of science. He is also interested in developing methods to use shared data to confirm and extend published science, as well as to explore new hypotheses. He also has worked on the connections between ethics and scientific methods, particularly in the domain of interventional research, and policy making. Finally, he has a strong interest in developing curricula and new models for teaching the foundations of good scientific practice, from question development to proper study design, conduct, analysis and inference. He teaches courses on clinical research methods, foundations of scientific and statistical reasoning, and evaluation of diagnostic and predictive technologies.
He has been a senior statistical editor of Annals of Internal Medicine since 1987 and was Editor of Clinical Trials: Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials from 2004-2013. He is Chair of the Methodology Committee of the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), where he led their open science and data sharing efforts, and is scientific advisor for the national Blue Cross–Blue Shield Technology Assessment Program. He has served on numerous Institute of Medicine committees since the mid 1990’s, including chairing a 2012 committee on drug safety, and as a committee member on sharing data from clinical trials, whose report was released in January, 2015. He was awarded the 2016 Spinoza Chair in Medicine from the University of Amsterdam for his work in scientific inference and the 2019 Abraham Lilienfeld award from the American College of Epidemiology for his research and teaching contributions to the field.
From 1989-2011, Steve served on the faculties of the Johns Hopkins Schools of Medicine and Public Health, where he was co-director of the doctoral program in Epidemiology and member (1989-2011) and then director (2007-2011) of the Johns Hopkins cancer center’s Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. At Hopkins, he taught courses on Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis, Diagnostic and prognostic testing, and several courses on epidemiologic, clinical research and inferential methods. He received an AB from Harvard, majoring in Biochemistry and Applied Math, an MD from NYU, trained in pediatrics at Washington University in St. Louis, and received a master’s degree in Biostatistics and PhD in Epidemiology from Johns Hopkins.
Anne W. Rimoin
PhD, MPH
Dr. Anne W. Rimoin is a Professor of Epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and Infectious Disease Division of the Geffen School of Medicine. She is the Director of the Center for Global and Immigrant Health and is an internationally recognized expert on emerging infections, global health, surveillance systems, and vaccination.
Her pioneering work has focused on the emergence of infectious disease in populations living at the intersection of animal-human contact primarily in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It has led to fundamental understandings of the long-term consequences of Ebolavirus in survivors and yielded several important discoveries including the emergence of monkeypox since the cessation of smallpox vaccination, the identification of a new pathogen (Bas Congo Virus) and novel strains of Simian Foamy Virus in humans.
Dr. Rimoin has been working in the DRC since 2002, where she founded the UCLA-DRC Health Research and Training program to train U.S. and Congolese epidemiologists to conduct high-impact infectious disease research in low-resource, logistically-complex settings. Her team is also leading efforts to assess vaccine efficacy and durability of immune response to Ebolavirus vaccine in outbreak settings in the DRC. Her team also leads health mapping activities for better disease surveillance to better understand population immunity to vaccine preventable diseases and coordinated studies of the epidemiology, natural history, and pathogenesis of acute and asymptomatic viral hemorrhagic fever infections in populations. She has been a strong advocate for capacity building in low resource settings and conducting disease surveillance in complex emergencies. She is currently leading a study of COVID-19 transmission among the Los Angeles health workforce.
Dr. Rimoin has published more than 70 research articles and book chapters. Her work has been featured in The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, WIRED, Discover, Scientific American, Popular Science, Forbes, National Geographic, Nature and Science. She also appears frequently on television and radio discussing major issues surrounding disease emergence and has recently been a leading voice on the COVID-19 pandemic in national news for CNN, MSNBC and Fox Business News.
Major supporters of Dr. Rimoin’s research includes: The Food and Drug Administration, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the US National Institutes of Health (NIAID-NIH), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Faucett Catalyst Fund and other private and public organizations. She was recently inducted as a Fellow of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Roger Lewis
MD, PhD
Dr. Lewis received his PhD in Biophysics and his MD from Stanford University. He is the former Chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Professor of Emergency Medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, and the Senior Medical Scientist at Berry Consultants, LLC, a group that specializes in innovative clinical trial design. Dr. Lewis’s expertise centers on adaptive and Bayesian clinical trials, including platform trials; translational, clinical, health services and outcomes research methodology; data and safety monitoring boards, and the oversight of clinical trials. Dr. Lewis was elected to membership in the National Academy of Medicine in 2009. Dr. Lewis is a member of the Blood Products Advisory Committee of the US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) and has served as a member of the Medicare Evidence Development & Coverage Advisory Committee of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. He has chaired data and safety monitoring boards (DSMBs) for numerous federally-funded, industry-sponsored, and multinational clinical trials. He is a research methodology reviewer for JAMA and an editor of the JAMA series entitled “JAMA Guides to Statistics and Methods.” Dr. Lewis has served as a content reviewer for many other peer reviewed journals. He has authored or coauthored over 270 original research publications, reviews, editorials, and chapters. Dr. Lewis has served as a grant reviewer for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), the National Cancer Institute of France, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), and foundations. During the US COVID-19 epidemic, Dr. Lewis has served as the Director of Covid-19 Demand Modeling for the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, leading a multidisciplinary team developing epidemiological prediction models to aid in hospital preparedness and response. Dr. Lewis is a Past President of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine (SAEM) and served on the Board of Directors for the Society for Clinical Trials. He is a fellow of the American College of Emergency Physicians, the American Statistical Association, and the Society for Clinical Trials.
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